never mind, clinton wins texas!!!!!!!

and a good thing too...

Hillary campaign accuses Obama camp of vote suppression

AUSTIN:
Hillary Clinton's campaign has accused Barack Obama's camp of engaging in "outrageous" and "undemocratic" tactics during the voting in Texas, including locking her supporters out of caucuses.

The Obama camp denied the allegations as a "laughable" attempt to play down the state's caucuses, a political nominating exercise that has produced better results for their White House candidate in other states.

whew! looks like we narrowly missed a big legal bruhaha.

texas primary delegate breakdown by senate district

for you election-obsessed folks out there... visit this site to see up to the minute texas primary delegate breakdown by senate district.

kos explains the benefit of a long drawn out democratic primary race

Why the contested Dem primary is good

by kos

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:02:21 PM PST

"Notice how John McCain won the nomination tonight, and yet he's gotten scant attention?

"I'm sure he'll get plenty of coverage tomorrow as he embraces George Bush and gets that coveted endorsement from Mr. 19%. But that'll be good for us."

via dailykos

"critical tuesday" or "votr"

the mediaheads are calling tonight's primaries "critical tuesday" (always with the fancy names: super duper tuesday, the potomac primaries). they're also calling it "VOTR" - vermont, ohio, texas and rhode island (the 4 states that participated in today's election).

very clever...

obama wins maine too!

"With 99 percent of the participating precincts reporting, Obama led in
state delegates elected over Clinton, 2,079 to 1,396, with 18 uncommitted."

link

and thus concludes his weekend sweep!

with this much momentum going into the "potomac primary" on tuesday, things look very good for barack obama.

obama's super saturday speech

jefferson-jackson dinner in richmond, virginia
february 9, 2008

democratic primary/caucus results map

results as of february 10, 2008 @ 3:07 am



states won so far
clinton ~ 12
obama ~ 18

current delegate totals
clinton ~ 1095
obama ~ 1070



won by obama on "super saturday"
louisiana
nebraska
washington
virgin islands

won by clinton on "super saturday"
none



map and delegate count courtesy of npr

Assessing Obama's Super Tuesday Performance

Bob Burnett offers ten advantages that Barack Obama holds over Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

1. Senator Obama came out of Super Tuesday in a virtual tie with Senator Clinton in terms of votes and delegates; it's clear he has a real shot at winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. A year ago, few of us would have predicted this would happen. He's run a surprisingly strong campaign; many would say a better operation than that of the vaunted Clinton machine.

2. He has proved his candidacy has broad appeal. On Super Tuesday, Senator Obama won more "pledged delegates" and more states than Senator Clinton. And, he won in "red" states, places like Alabama and Kansas.

3. By winning the majority of male voters in most primaries, regardless of race, Senator Obama dispelled the myth that he is a strictly a black candidate - he won 46 percent of the white votes in California and 52 percent of the white men. At this writing New Mexico is a virtual dead heat, as 1100 votes separate Clinton and Obama; he carried 55 percent of all White voters.

4. Senator Obama has overcome the huge advantages of the Clinton campaign: high name recognition and having prepared for three years. Senator Clinton's California campaign had been well organized for more than a year. While Senator Obama had fundraisers here since February of 2007, he did not have a campaign infrastructure in place until January; therefore it's not surprising he lost. After his wins in Iowa and South Carolina, there was a rising wave of enthusiasm for the Illinois Senator but it came too late to translate into the substantial infrastructure needed to carry California.

5. While Senator Obama did have a gender and race problem in California - he carried only 34 percent of women overall, 29 percent of Latino voters and 23 percent of Asians - this was not the case in New Mexico. He did significantly better among Latinos in New Mexico than he did in California, which suggests that when Hispanic voters get to know him, they will support him.

6. Senator Obama has proved to be a terrific fundraiser. In January he raised more than $31 million while Senator Clinton collected only $13 million and was forced to lend her campaign $5 million. There's little doubt that Senator Obama will have the funds to continue the contest for as long as necessary. Indeed, there are many who suggest the Clinton strategy was to secure the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday and, since she didn't, she is now at a financial disadvantage because Senator Obama has a larger number of donors.

7. The Democratic presidential race has been reduced to two contenders. As we go forward, Senator Obama's name recognition will improve. This will help him garner more support, as increased public familiarity will dispel the notion he is less experienced than Senator Clinton.

8. Ultimately, the Democratic candidate will face Senator John McCain. National polls indicate Senator Obama runs ahead of McCain, while Senator Clinton does not. Political observers posit that in a campaign pitting Obama versus McCain, the relative youthfulness of the Illinois Senator is a big factor, as he wins young voters by decisive majorities regardless of race or gender. Furthermore, Obama runs stronger in the south and mid west than does Senator Clinton. (This can be seen in Tuesday's results from Georgia where the total votes cast for Obama exceeded the combined totals of the two leading Republican candidates: Huckabee and McCain.)

9. Senator Clinton has high unfavorability ratings. Political observers argue the reason Senator Obama runs better against McCain than does Senator Clinton is due to her strong negatives, particularly the antipathy felt by Republican voters. It is widely believed that if the November contest were to pit McCain versus Clinton many Republicans would show up at the polls in order to vote against Senator Clinton - her presence on the ticket would improve the chances of the Republican candidate.

10. Many political insiders believe Senator Obama's nomination would be better for the Party as a whole; they argue he will "have coat tails" - help the entire ticket - whereas Senator Clinton will not. They note she will run well in blue states such as California and New York, but point out that Senator Obama will run equally well in those areas and much better in red states such as Georgia and Kansas, and purple states such as Colorado and Minnesota. And, in the final analysis November is not just about Democrats winning the presidency, it's also about increasing Democratic majorities in Congress.

The bottom line is that Barack Obama will remain in the race for the Democratic Presidential until the August convention, where he could prevail if delegates recognize he is a better fit for the entire ticket

republican debate - tripleR (ronald reagan redux)

super tuesday live thread

12:55 am ~ and obama wins alaska.

ok, it's bedtime folks. bye for now.


12:45 am ~ romney wins colorado.
huck wins tennessee.

i think that makes 5 wins for each of them tonight.


12:40 am ~ obama is "apparent winner" in missouri!


12:15 am ~ clinton wins california. so does mccain.

i was hoping that california would go to obama. ny too.

probably the substantial latino population in california had a lot to do with clinton's win.

oh well. it's not over yet. and clinton is pretty awesome too, so either way, i'm happy, as long as whoever it is beats mccain (which i think either of them can do).


11:51 pm ~ so... DHinMI, a very wise person over at dailykos has posted the very real fact that the democratic delegate counts should be ignored, and here's why:

"Until the votes are completely tallied, we won't know the proportion of the votes won in a given state by Hillary Clinton and the proportion won in that
state by Barack Obama. Furthermore, about 75% of the pledged delegates awarded based on tonight's results will be parceled out by Congressional District, with the other 25% awarded proportionally based on the statewide totals. Are any states completely done tallying the statewide totals and the congressional district by congressional district breakdowns? No. Therefore, it's impossible to know what the delegate count is."

sooo... please disregard all the democratic delegate counts i have posted below ;) sorry!


11:50 pm ~ obama is making an awesome speech. and he just won colorado.

YES WE CAN!


11:33 ~ romney wins minnesota... i think that's his 4th win tonight. huck's won 4 states as well. interesting.


11:15 pm ~ clinton wins arizona

the democratic delegate count hasn't changed, but check out the gop count:
mccain - 367
romney - 127
huckabee - 91 (there's georgia)

of course these counts are sans california. we'll see what happens when they call that race.


10:56 pm ~ as clinton speaks in new york, the screen announces that obama has won minnesota and idaho. california is too close to call for both parties.


10:49 pm ~ one more casualty from the severe weather, this time in tennessee


10:45 pm ~ huck wins georgia. that was a close race all night - a three way tie since the polls closed. very interesting. a repeat of west va? or just good ol' georgians?

one last delegate count update before the next big wave at 8 pm PST.

clinton - 160
obama - 138 (9 more than the last count, perhaps those were from KS and CT)

mccain - 314 (!)
romney - 127
huck - 58 (i expect this will change soon with the georgia win)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

let me take a quick break from my election obsession to say this:

I LOVE MY BOYFRIEND SO MUCH!!!

and now back to your regularly scheduled program...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

10:30 pm ~ obama wins kansas and... connecticut!
let's take a look at that delegate count now.

clinton - 160
obama - 129

so i guess obama got 20 delegates from north dakota and utah? perhaps kansas and CT but i don't think they're counted yet.


10:03 pm ~ obama wins north dakota. and utah! what the heck?


9:52 pm mccain wins oklahoma. the pundits joke that it's the first non-coastal state he's won. because, you know, he's so liberal. ha. ha.


9:43 pm ~ the delegate counts at this hour:

clinton - 160
obama - 109

mccain - 291
romney - 91
huck - 58

wow... mccain is kicking ass.


also... a news story lost in the super tuesdayness of it all...

elections don't kill people, tornadoes kill people.
that really sucks :(


9:20 pm ~ mccain wins NY.
clinton wins new jersey.

chris matthews just compared mccain to an amtrak train. he is so lame. thank god olbermann is there to shut him up.


9:09 pm ~ with the NY win, the democratic delegate count has changed...
clinton - 141
obama - 106
edwards - 26 (that ain't gonna change, not tonight anyway)


9:00 pm ~ clinton wins NEW YORK! that surprises me.
obama wins delaware.

chris matthews keeps saying that clinton "has beaten the kennedys in massachusetts." annoying.


8:58 pm ~ clinton wins massachussets. sorry teddy.


8:54 pm ~ the democratic delegate count is currently:
obama - 106
clinton - 83
edwards - 26

does edwards get to give those delegates to obama or clinton? or do they just go away?

current republican delegate count:
mccain - 172
romney - 91
huckabee - 58

8:53 ~ huck wins alabama (not a surprise)

8:30 pm ~ clinton and huckabee win arkansas. i wonder if huckabee got thrown more votes this time or if it was a legitimate win?

mccain wins new jersey, illinois and delaware.

an interesting note - polls are showing that evangelical voters only slightly favor huckabee (33%) over mccain and romney (both 30%). it's kind of nice that they aren't biased against romney for his mormonism. i guess christianity is christianity when you're facing "the threat of evil islamic terrorists who want to destroy our country!" (sarcasm mine)


8 pm ~ big poll closing time...

clinton wins oklahoma
obama wins illinois
romney wins massachussets
mccain wins connecticut
clinton wins tennessee

all other races too close to call or too early to call.


7:47 pm ~ why do latinos lean towards clinton vs obama? the so called "black-brown divide"?


7 pm ~ barack obama projected to win in georgia! gop too close to call between mccain, romney and huck. can't wait to see what happens in ca and ny... although georgia was an "expected" win for obama, i have a feeling this is going to be a big night for him everywhere.


5:34 pm ~ ooh, romney is PISSED that huckabee won west va, he's blasting mccain for making a "washington backroom deal" and stealing his votes!

"Governor Romney had enough respect for the Republican voters of West Virginia to make an appeal to them about the future of the party based on issues. This is why he led on today’s first ballot... Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans who are interested in championing conservative policies and rebuilding the party.” - Beth Myers, Romney’s national campaign manager

mccain scoffed at these accusations, saying he knew nothing about any of these deals.

well all's fair in love, war and politics... besides i love watching these guys bitching at each other. the other republican candidates seem to have formed a "we hate romney" club. poor little millionaire.

click here to read the details of how these fellas bought and sold their delegates in west virginia. ron paul, for example, threw his delegates to huckabee in exchange for 3 of the 18 west va delegates that huckabee would win (republican primaries are traditionally "winner take all"), while mccain, with a primary goal of stopping the romney threat, had his staffers start "parading around the hall carrying signs telling their delegates to vote for Huckabee."

caucuses are interesting.


2:33 pm ~ huckabee wins west virginia.

wow. i wonder how many other southern states he's going to win? he may not be written off tonight. or he will. we'll see!


1:11 pm ~ california is going to determine this whole thing... it's going for obama. even delegate wise. that's my prediction. (update 2/6/08 ~ ok so i was wrong...)

the ted/carolyn kennedy endorsement is also going to help obama a lot. you gotta wonder what kind of personal relationship exists between the clintons and the kennedys, and whether the obama endorsement is a reflection of that relationship, especially give that the kennedys themselves are split on clinton and obama.

funny how ted's family is for obama, and bobby kennedy's family is for clinton.
(update 2/6/08 ~ bobby's family is clearly superior ;) )

12:42 pm ~ so, mother nature doesn't want us to vote? i wonder if this affects anyone... probably obama and huckabee, since the "tornado" states are in the south...


12:05 pm ~ ok, so it looks like the coastal states (california, new york, new jersey) are going to go for obama. ESPECIALLY california. the question is, will obama draw even with clinton, or will be far surpass her? could he be the clear winner tonight in terms of delegate numbers? i'm going to research that.

california DTS voters - don't forget to mark box 6!

californians take note - if you registered to vote as DTS (decline to state), you can still vote in the democratic primary on february 5.

When you do, be sure to mark box 6 (see sample ballot below). otherwise, your vote may not be counted.



in an informative little post entitled I Know, Let's Make Voting Harder , dday over at digbys reveals that...

... in Los Angeles County, if a DTS voter requests their Democratic ballot and casts their vote, but does NOT mark "Democratic" in the appropriate space, will indeed not be counted. The ballot will go through the scan-tron machine, not register as a counted vote, AND will not spit back out for the voter to fix.

i know there's a lot you cali folks who are NOT in LA, but if you are registered DTS, i suggest taking a look at the ballot sample above (just in case) and make sure you mark box 6 when you cast your vote in order make certain that your vote is counted!

if you were wondering, californian DTS voters cannot vote in the republican primary as they have "closed" elections.

who are you voting for tomorrow (or whenever your state's primary is)?

i am still undecided.

clinton has a better (imo) health care plan.

obama gives more inspiring speeches and seems to represent more authentic change. and will bring out the youth vote like never before in recent history. for just one example, check out this amazing video... yes we can!

but then, having a woman for president would be a bigger change than just having another man of a slightly different skin color. that would be an essential change and one i think would have far-reaching positive consequences for women in the us and, to a lesser extent, throughout the world.

however, i think a black man is more "electable" - in this country right now - than a woman. especially with all the misogyny against hillary clinton that has been in our popular culture for at least 16 years. someone said that she "reminds baby boomer men of their first wives." like this should matter. but of course, it does.

but the last clinton years were so good - and her policies would be very close to his i think... and we know that works really well for most people.

so, according to my tv, obama is now leading in massachusetts. the effect of the kenney endorsements, they say.

i still don't know.

what do you think?

edwards dropping out makes me sad

that is all.